WBC semifinals: Team USA faces undefeated Dominican Republic in Miami tonight

Team USA and the Dominican Republic meet tonight at 8 p.m. ET at LoanDepot Park in Miami in the first semifinal of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The Dominican Republic enters the game undefeated through the tournament, having run-ruled South Korea 10-0 in Saturday's quarterfinal to advance. Team USA beat Canada 5-3 in a tighter quarterfinal game, relying on a sixth-inning three-run rally after falling behind early. The winner of tonight's game advances to the championship game on Wednesday.

The Dominican Republic has been the most impressive team of this tournament by a significant margin. Their 10-0 quarterfinal win triggered the run-rule, meaning South Korea was retired after seven innings, and it followed a pool stage in which the Dominican Republic outscored opponents by a combined 47 to 11 across five games. That kind of offensive dominance at a tournament where pitchers are on strict pitch count restrictions puts serious pressure on Team USA, which has had to work harder for its wins.

How Team USA got here and where its vulnerabilities are

The United States went 4-1 in pool play, with their only loss coming against Japan in a 3-2 game that was tighter than expected. In the quarterfinal against Canada, starter Corbin Burnes went four innings and allowed two runs before the bullpen held Canada scoreless through the final three frames. The late rally gave Team USA a lead it did not relinquish, but the game exposed some inconsistency in the lineup against quality pitching.

The United States will need its top hitters to produce against Dominican Republic pitching that has been sharp all tournament. Sandy Alcantara, who started the quarterfinal against South Korea and struck out nine over five innings before being pulled on pitch count, is available to start tonight's semifinal. Alcantara pitched three days ago, so his availability depends on how many pitches he threw in that outing. WBC rules allow a pitcher to start again with 50 or fewer pitches thrown in the previous outing, and Alcantara threw 71, which means he would be available in a relief role but not as the starter.

What makes the Dominican Republic so difficult to beat

The Dominican Republic roster features eight players who have been named to at least one MLB All-Star team in the past three seasons, the deepest concentration of active top-level talent of any team in this tournament. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .450 through five games with three home runs and 11 RBIs. Julio Rodriguez has reached base in every game and scored seven times. The team's average runs scored per game is 11.4, which is higher than any team that has reached the WBC semifinals in the tournament's history.

Their pitching staff has been equally dominant. The Dominican Republic has allowed just 11 runs in six games, and its collective bullpen ERA for the tournament is 1.43. WBC pitch count rules mean no starter can exceed 65 pitches in pool play or 80 pitches in knockout rounds, which compresses bullpen usage across the board, but the Dominican Republic has managed that constraint better than any other team in the field by deploying a deep enough roster that each transition to a new arm has not produced significant drop-off in effectiveness.

Italy's historic run and the second semifinal

Italy is in the WBC semifinals for the first time in the tournament's history. The Azzurri, which draws heavily from Italian-American players in MLB rather than players based in Italy's domestic league, beat Cuba 7-3 in Saturday's quarterfinal. Third baseman Anthony Rizzo went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in four of the seven runs, providing the offensive centerpiece for a team that has exceeded what most tournament projections expected from them heading into the knockout stage.

Italy will face either Venezuela or Japan in Monday's second semifinal, with that quarterfinal game still to be determined. Japan, the defending WBC champion, is attempting to win back-to-back titles for only the second time in tournament history. Venezuela features a roster built around active MLB stars including Jose Altuve and Salvador Perez. Japan vs. Venezuela would be a marquee quarterfinal matchup in any context, and whoever advances faces an Italy team that has shown enough in this tournament to be taken seriously regardless of the opponent.

The championship game and what is at stake for US baseball

The WBC championship game is scheduled for Wednesday, March 18, at LoanDepot Park in Miami. If Team USA advances, it would be playing for the WBC title in Miami against either the Dominican Republic in a rematch or against the winner of Monday's semifinal. The United States won the WBC in 2017, its only title in the tournament's history. The Dominican Republic has never won the WBC despite consistently producing some of the deepest rosters in the field, losing in the semifinals in 2006, 2009, and 2017, and in the quarterfinals in 2013 and 2023.

Tonight's game at LoanDepot Park is expected to draw a sellout crowd of 36,742, which would be the largest single-game attendance in this tournament's 2026 edition. The Miami metropolitan area has the highest concentration of Dominican-born residents of any US city outside New York, and the Dominican Republic's undefeated run through the tournament has generated significant ticket demand in South Florida. First pitch is at 8 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.