Trump claims coalition will send warships to reopen Strait of Hormuz

President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that the United States and several other nations would dispatch warships to the Gulf to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut to most commercial shipping since the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28. The strait, just 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, carries roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply. With traffic now reduced to near zero, oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel, and about 1,000 tankers are anchored outside the strait unable to move.

Trump made the announcement on Truth Social, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as countries he hoped would contribute naval forces. As of Sunday, none of those countries had made firm commitments. The gap between the announcement and the actual coalition tells most of the story.

What Trump said and what countries actually responded

Trump wrote on Truth Social that nations "especially those affected by Iran's attempted closure" of the strait would be sending warships alongside the US. He later posted a follow-up saying the countries of the world that receive oil through Hormuz "must take care of that passage," and that the US would help "a lot." He also warned that the US would be targeting Iranian shoreline positions and Iranian boats while escort operations were being organized.

The responses from the named countries ranged from cautious to skeptical. UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said Britain was working with allies to reopen the strait but noted that ending the war was the "best and surest" path. South Korea's Foreign Ministry said it would "carefully review" the situation. A Chinese embassy spokesperson said China would "strengthen communication with relevant parties" for de-escalation, which is not a commitment to send ships. Germany's Foreign Affairs Minister Johann Wadephul told ARD television that Germany would not become an active part of the conflict.

Why reopening the strait by force is harder than it sounds

Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security analyst at King's College London's School of Security Studies, told Al Jazeera that Trump's coalition call appeared to mask the absence of a concrete operational plan. Krieg said Iran did not need to win a naval battle to keep the strait closed. All it needed to do was strike occasionally to keep insurers away from the waterway. War-risk insurance premiums for a single transit by a very large oil tanker had already risen by roughly $250,000 before the conflict escalated, according to shipping industry data from early March.

The geography works in Iran's favor. The shipping lanes inside the strait are narrow and run close to Iran's coastline, which means land-based anti-ship missiles, sea mines, and drones can threaten vessels without Iran needing to project naval power far from its shores. The US military is reportedly planning operations to neutralize those land-based missile positions before escort missions begin, according to sources cited by Axios on Friday.

Iran's selective access policy and China's position

Iran's position has been more selective than a full blockade. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS that the strait is closed to ships from the US, Israel, and their Western allies, but that other vessels are being allowed passage. On March 4, Iran announced it would allow Chinese vessels through, and at least two ships broadcasting Chinese ownership successfully transited the strait in early March. A Turkish-operated LPG tanker broadcasting Muslim ownership also passed through safely.

This selective access policy puts China in a difficult position regarding Trump's coalition request. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and Iranian crude has continued flowing to China during the conflict. Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera that China had little incentive to send warships, since its own energy supply was not being disrupted. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration still plans to formally announce the coalition this week, though US officials told the paper it was still deliberating whether operations would begin before or after a ceasefire.

The economic and humanitarian scale of the disruption

The closure is not only an energy problem. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has warned that the strait is also a primary conduit for LNG exports used to produce nitrogen-based fertilizers, which provide more than 40 percent of global caloric intake according to the organization's analysis. India has invoked emergency powers to protect 333 million homes that rely on LPG for cooking fuel. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher stated that millions of people are at risk if humanitarian cargo cannot pass through safely.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship, along with its Marine expeditionary unit, to the Middle East. The Marine unit is capable of conducting ground operations if ordered. French President Emmanuel Macron separately announced that France was organizing a defensive escort mission under the framework of Operation Aspides and planned to send two frigates, with Britain, Germany, and Italy working to support the effort. Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Thursday, at which point Japan's response to the coalition request is expected to become clearer.